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Netanyahu’s bloc fell eight seats short of a Knesset majority on October 27, winning 53 of 120 seats to 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s camp. The Arab parties took a record 19 on turnout of about 80% in Arab communities, up from 54% in 2022. Netanyahu will stay on as caretaker PM until a new government is sworn in. As leader of the largest party (Likud with 27 seats), he is also the most likely recipient of President Herzog’s first mandate to form a government, which runs 28 days and can be extended by 14.
Netanyahu and Likud have spent the days since the vote claiming the election was stolen, which is a ploy to block the one coalition that could replace him. Eisenkot can reach 61 only with the Arab parties, and only if Avigdor Liberman’s seven seats stay with him. With Liberman, the anti-Netanyahu camp and the Arab slates hold 67 seats. Without him, they hold 60. Liberman campaigned on a government of “Zionist parties only”. Now, he appears to favor an Eisenkot-Netanyahu unity government. Bennett now says he will sit only with “Zionist” parties, and Likud is warning of the “Islamisation of Israel”. The party is using a Shin Bet inquiry into alleged Qatari funding of Arab turnout as the silver bullet of its propaganda. Israeli officials say the inquiry is being blown wildly out of proportion. Ben-Gvir wants Arab party leaders arrested and the result annulled.
The two main possible outcomes both favor Netanyahu. A unity government keeps him in power, or a repeat election…
Netanyahu’s bloc fell eight seats short of a Knesset majority on October 27, winning 53 of 120 seats to 48 for Gadi Eisenkot’s camp. The Arab parties took a record 19 on turnout of about 80% in Arab communities, up from 54% in 2022. Netanyahu will stay on as caretaker PM until a new government is sworn in. As leader of the largest party (Likud with 27 seats), he is also the most likely recipient of President Herzog’s first mandate to form a government, which runs 28 days and can be extended by 14.
Netanyahu and Likud have spent the days since the vote claiming the election was stolen, which is a ploy to block the one coalition that could replace him. Eisenkot can reach 61 only with the Arab parties, and only if Avigdor Liberman’s seven seats stay with him. With Liberman, the anti-Netanyahu camp and the Arab slates hold 67 seats. Without him, they hold 60. Liberman campaigned on a government of “Zionist parties only”. Now, he appears to favor an Eisenkot-Netanyahu unity government. Bennett now says he will sit only with “Zionist” parties, and Likud is warning of the “Islamisation of Israel”. The party is using a Shin Bet inquiry into alleged Qatari funding of Arab turnout as the silver bullet of its propaganda. Israeli officials say the inquiry is being blown wildly out of proportion. Ben-Gvir wants Arab party leaders arrested and the result annulled.
The two main possible outcomes both favor Netanyahu. A unity government keeps him in power, or a repeat election early next year would buy him more time to regroup against the opposition. That’s the window for another major push against Iran.
Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense U.S. offensive after the November 3 midterms. Netanyahu figures he only has two years to finish the job (as long as Trump remains in office).
The U.S. buildup for a second round is already under way. U.S. forces are restocking munitions in the region, bombers and fighter jets are being readied, and a Patriot missile defence system is moving from Texas to Israel. A carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit will join about 20 U.S. warships in the Middle East in November, and the State Department has ordered further staff cuts at diplomatic posts across the region.
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