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Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have topped 101 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) for the first time since the 2022 crisis as winter looms amid historically low European gas storage levels.

The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, surged by 4% as of 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on Friday. The TTF price was on track for an 8% weekly gain amid mounting concerns that the escalation in the Middle East would continue to choke off Qatari and Emirati LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

At 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh early on Friday, the European benchmark price topped the 100-euro mark for the first time since 2022, during the previous gas crisis when Russia cut off pipeline gas supply to most of its European customers after Putin invaded Ukraine.

EU storage sites were only 74.89% full as of October 29, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s well below the five-year average of about 86% for this time of the year so close to the start of the heating season.

As temperatures drop and the heating season begins, it’s unlikely that the storage would go further up from here during the coming winter as withdrawals have started in a number of countries.

Furthermore, QatarEnergy this week extended the force majeure on LNG deliveries to the end of the year, leaving Europe and Asia without certain term supply heading into the winter.

“The market has moved higher, with little sign of imminent relief in Persian Gulf LNG flows. If anything, the outlook appears more dire amid the risk of renewed US strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections next week,” Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a Thursday note.

Qatar’s extended force majeure means that “LNG supply disruptions are creeping deeper into the heating season,” Patterson said, noting that several unplanned outages in Norway are also adding to Europe’s supply concerns.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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