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Saudi Arabia was already the most exposed country in the US-Iran war, and Iran has now explicitly listed Saudi refineries, data centers, and undersea communications cables as the next targets should Washington strike again.
That day may be nearly upon us, with the New York Times reporting on Thursday that Washington and Israel have drawn up a short, intensive bombing campaign for post-November 3 (and post-October 27 elections for Israel), with exercises already running, more U.S. forces moving into the region, and a target list covering nuclear sites, missile and drone installations and energy infrastructure; though this latest target is a point of contention for those who would like to keep gasoline prices down.
Riyadh is already struggling to keep Houthi missiles and drones off its energy infrastructure, and that is where Egypt now enters the fray.
The offer is a defensive move by Egypt, which can’t afford to lose either the Saudi money that keeps its economy afloat or the Red Sea shipping that pays for its gas imports. A $5.3 billion Saudi deposit at Egypt's central bank falls due this month, and Houthi attacks on shipping have cost the Suez Canal dearly.
While the Suez Canal has recovered from the Houthi attacks since the U.S.-Iran war began, the war has cost Egypt far more in other ways. Israel cut gas exports to Egypt when the war started, forcing Cairo to buy replacement LNG just as attacks on Qatar and the near-closure of Hormuz sent global…
Saudi Arabia was already the most exposed country in the US-Iran war, and Iran has now explicitly listed Saudi refineries, data centers, and undersea communications cables as the next targets should Washington strike again.
That day may be nearly upon us, with the New York Times reporting on Thursday that Washington and Israel have drawn up a short, intensive bombing campaign for post-November 3 (and post-October 27 elections for Israel), with exercises already running, more U.S. forces moving into the region, and a target list covering nuclear sites, missile and drone installations and energy infrastructure; though this latest target is a point of contention for those who would like to keep gasoline prices down.
Riyadh is already struggling to keep Houthi missiles and drones off its energy infrastructure, and that is where Egypt now enters the fray.
The offer is a defensive move by Egypt, which can’t afford to lose either the Saudi money that keeps its economy afloat or the Red Sea shipping that pays for its gas imports. A $5.3 billion Saudi deposit at Egypt's central bank falls due this month, and Houthi attacks on shipping have cost the Suez Canal dearly.
While the Suez Canal has recovered from the Houthi attacks since the U.S.-Iran war began, the war has cost Egypt far more in other ways. Israel cut gas exports to Egypt when the war started, forcing Cairo to buy replacement LNG just as attacks on Qatar and the near-closure of Hormuz sent global prices soaring. Egypt's monthly energy import bill doubled to $2.5 billion in March, and the IMF puts the extra cost at about $3.5 billion between March and June. Foreign investors fled to safety and pulled $17 billion out of Egyptian Treasury debt in seven weeks, which knocked as much as 17% off the pound and pushed inflation above 15%. With oil above $100, Cairo raised fuel prices by up to 30% and ordered shops to close at 9 p.m. to save power.
Sisi has asked parliament to authorize him to answer any Saudi request for defense help, and the parliamentary vote will be on October 26, with pro-Sisi parties likely to meet the two-thirds threshold for approval. Cairo hasn't said how many troops it would send or what they would do, but has noted that it would not enter Yemen. That makes Egypt a direct target for the Houthis, or Iran via the Houthis, but there appears to be a backdoor channel here with Iran that led to the pledge to stay out of Yemen.
Egypt's gas system will not be able to sustain a hit. Domestic production has been falling for years, and Egypt is back to importing LNG. When a drone hit Egypt’s Energos Winter regasification vessel at Damietta and set a second LNG carrier on fire in late July, it took out one-tenth of Egypt’s import capacity.
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