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Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Air strikes on October 10 killed at least 72 artisanal gold miners at Shamal al-Wadi, in the far north of Sudan's Red Sea state, along a border Egypt is policing to control a gold trade it now dominates. Survivors put the toll above 200. Miners and Sudanese rights groups blame Egyptian aircraft, and no government has claimed the strikes. Egypt treats the disputed area as its own territory and says its operations against illegal prospecting stayed inside its borders. It is the second deadly raid on the same area since June, when more than 50 were reported killed, and Egypt's border force seized 86 tonnes of gold ore. Sudan mined about 70 tonnes of gold in 2025 and formally exported less than 15, so most of the output was smuggled out or refined informally. Egypt became the second largest buyer of Sudan's official exports that year, taking 4.9 tonnes worth $517 million, nearly 20 times its 2024 volume.
France's high school revolt is handing Marine Le Pen the 2027 race. The blockades began in mid-September at one high school in Créteil over teacher shortages and decaying buildings. At their peak, they disrupted more than 1,000 of France's 3,700 high schools. Police have taken more than 6,800 people into custody, most of them minors, and a 15-year-old lost a hand. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has offered about 3,000 substitute teachers for the 114 worst-hit schools and promised proposals on the school day and building repairs…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Air strikes on October 10 killed at least 72 artisanal gold miners at Shamal al-Wadi, in the far north of Sudan's Red Sea state, along a border Egypt is policing to control a gold trade it now dominates. Survivors put the toll above 200. Miners and Sudanese rights groups blame Egyptian aircraft, and no government has claimed the strikes. Egypt treats the disputed area as its own territory and says its operations against illegal prospecting stayed inside its borders. It is the second deadly raid on the same area since June, when more than 50 were reported killed, and Egypt's border force seized 86 tonnes of gold ore. Sudan mined about 70 tonnes of gold in 2025 and formally exported less than 15, so most of the output was smuggled out or refined informally. Egypt became the second largest buyer of Sudan's official exports that year, taking 4.9 tonnes worth $517 million, nearly 20 times its 2024 volume.
France's high school revolt is handing Marine Le Pen the 2027 race. The blockades began in mid-September at one high school in Créteil over teacher shortages and decaying buildings. At their peak, they disrupted more than 1,000 of France's 3,700 high schools. Police have taken more than 6,800 people into custody, most of them minors, and a 15-year-old lost a hand. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has offered about 3,000 substitute teachers for the 114 worst-hit schools and promised proposals on the school day and building repairs by the end of October. Students are demanding €10 billion. Mélenchon's France Unbowed has attached itself to the movement, and the government and intelligence services accuse it of organizing the blockades. Voters side with the students and against the party: 62% call the movement justified, and 78% say France Unbowed is exploiting it. Le Pen polls about 34% in the first round, more than double Mélenchon. Her campaign rests on two referendums, one restricting immigration and one banning the hijab in public. Édouard Philippe is the only candidate who has beaten her in a runoff poll. The government is counting on the half-term break to empty the streets, and the students say they will keep blockading until someone listens.
Trump says Taiwan has agreed to take 30% of the LNG from the proposed Alaska LNG project and invest $4.4 billion in the pipeline, although neither Taipei nor the project developers have confirmed that a final binding deal has been signed. Taiwan’s state energy company CPC already signed a letter of intent last year for 6 million tonnes a year, roughly 30% of Alaska LNG’s planned 20 million tonnes of annual export capacity. The project has so far lined up agreements covering about 13 million tonnes a year and still needs another 3 million tonnes of binding commitments to support financing. For Taiwan, Alaska offers a shorter route than Gulf Coast LNG and fits its effort to increase U.S. energy purchases; for Alaska LNG, the bigger question is whether Trump’s announcement converts the existing nonbinding commitments into bankable contracts.
KKR and TotalEnergies are expanding their North American renewables joint venture with another 700 MW of utility-scale solar in Texas and Ohio, adding a portfolio valued at $1.2 billion. The 50/50 venture was formed last year when KKR bought half of a 1.4 GW TotalEnergies solar portfolio for $1.25 billion, and the new assets are due online by the first quarter of 2027. The power is already contracted to third parties or will be marketed by TotalEnergies, giving KKR another large operating renewables position while allowing TotalEnergies to recycle capital without giving up control of the projects. The latest deal takes the partnership to 2.1 GW and shows the same model the two companies are now using elsewhere: TotalEnergies develops and operates the assets, while institutional capital helps fund the buildout.
EnergyX has signed a $2 billion binding lithium offtake with Trafigura, giving the startup a 10-year buyer for output from planned projects in Chile and Texas and strengthening its case for a $690 million U.S. Export-Import Bank loan. Trafigura will take 100,000 tonnes over the contract, split each year evenly between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. EnergyX plans to begin producing 7,500 tonnes a year of lithium carbonate in Chile in 2028, with Trafigura taking about two-thirds of that output, followed by 15,000 tonnes a year of lithium hydroxide in Texas in 2029, of which Trafigura will buy about a third. Trafigura plans to sell the material initially into China, then shift more volumes toward the U.S. as domestic battery manufacturing expands. EnergyX is backed by General Motors and Eni and still needs additional financing to build both projects.
Dangote Petroleum will extend the IPO for its 700,000 bpd Nigerian refinery by 10 days to give investors elsewhere in Africa more time to participate. The offering opened about a month ago and is seeking up to $2.1 billion to fund the refinery’s expansion, which would make it Africa’s largest share sale to date. Dangote is targeting as many as 10 million retail investors in Nigeria and across the continent as it broadens ownership of the refinery, which is still controlled by Aliko Dangote. The extension also points to the practical difficulty of selling a single African equity offering across multiple national markets, even for the continent’s biggest industrial project.
Saudi Arabia wants to raise the amount of crude it can move by pipeline to around 10 million bpd, reducing its dependence on tanker routes through the Gulf and Red Sea. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Aramco could add up to 1.2 million bpd within seven to eight weeks by temporarily converting a domestic gas pipeline to carry oil, with the line returned to gas service before summer demand peaks. A larger program of pumping station upgrades and other work on the East West pipeline could eventually add as much as 3 million bpd, lifting diversion capacity to roughly 10 million bpd over the next two to three years. The investment is a direct response to the shipping vulnerability exposed by this year’s regional war and would give Riyadh much more flexibility to keep exports moving if either coast comes under pressure.
Trump said on October 14 that large-scale oil and gas exploration in Greenland is about to begin, and Greenland's deputy mining minister answered that the island is nowhere near that. Greenland has issued no new oil and gas licences since July 2021. Its only live oil project, an undrilled onshore basin at Jameson Land, runs on a pre-2021 licence and is funded by Texas-based Greenland Energy, in which Citadel's Ken Griffin holds 9.3%. Greenland halted that project's timeline in August after the company shipped in drilling equipment without permits, and its first well is now due by the end of 2028. The September security pact expands U.S. bases on the island but grants no exploration rights, and Greenland controls its own subsoil.
Guyana is likely to shrink its planned LNG export project because the Exxon-led Stabroek consortium needs about 2 bcf/d of gas to reinject into its fields to hit crude targets. The government is weighing starting the planned 6 mtpa export plant at up to 3 mtpa, or dropping exports to fuel a gas-fired power plant, and a planned alumina refinery, fertilizer plant and data centers are likely on hold. Exxon, Chevron and CNOOC control all of Guyana's oil and gas output. Crude exports are scheduled to pass 1 million b/d for the first time in December, when the first 4 million barrels ship from Uaru, Stabroek's fifth development. Exxon puts Stabroek's resources at just under 11 billion boe, a figure that has held near 11 billion since 2022 even as the block passed 1 billion barrels of output. Crude exports earned $15.05 billion in the first half of 2026, and Guyana's recorded petroleum receipts for roughly the same period came to about $1.9 billion.
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