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Japan to Tap $7 Billion from Government Fund to Subsidize Gasoline Prices
China’s rare earth dominance leaves…
Finland granted Posiva an operating…
Bloomberg reports that the EU…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Bolsonaro has been secretly flown to Miami on a private jet, three days after losing Brazil’s presidential runoff to Lula and a day after defying a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports in a money-laundering case. The State Department is issuing visas to him and his family. Prior to the election, U.S. diplomats in Brazil were told the policy was to return the Bolsonaros to power, making them a direct target. On October 27, Justice Flávio Dino ordered federal police to investigate foreign financing of Bolsonaro’s campaign, including contacts with the Rockbridge Network (J.D. Vance), and possible links to overseas interests in Brazil’s rare earths. Bolsonaro will lose his Senate immunity in February. Rare earths are at stake for Washington in this game. The Department of War has backed a 15-year offtake of Serra Verde’s output with $750 million. USA Rare Earth bought the mine in September without an understanding with Brasília, and in September, Lula reciprocated with a law that lets a new council review changes of control over mineral assets. Inside the Trump administration, National Security Council officials have pushed to secure Brazil’s rare earths by playing nice with Lula’s government, and they have clashed with State Department officials who backed Bolsonaro, which will make it impossible to bargain over rare earths.
Serbian voters ended Aleksandar Vu?i?’s 14-year hold on power on October 25. The Student List,…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Bolsonaro has been secretly flown to Miami on a private jet, three days after losing Brazil’s presidential runoff to Lula and a day after defying a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports in a money-laundering case. The State Department is issuing visas to him and his family. Prior to the election, U.S. diplomats in Brazil were told the policy was to return the Bolsonaros to power, making them a direct target. On October 27, Justice Flávio Dino ordered federal police to investigate foreign financing of Bolsonaro’s campaign, including contacts with the Rockbridge Network (J.D. Vance), and possible links to overseas interests in Brazil’s rare earths. Bolsonaro will lose his Senate immunity in February. Rare earths are at stake for Washington in this game. The Department of War has backed a 15-year offtake of Serra Verde’s output with $750 million. USA Rare Earth bought the mine in September without an understanding with Brasília, and in September, Lula reciprocated with a law that lets a new council review changes of control over mineral assets. Inside the Trump administration, National Security Council officials have pushed to secure Brazil’s rare earths by playing nice with Lula’s government, and they have clashed with State Department officials who backed Bolsonaro, which will make it impossible to bargain over rare earths.
Serbian voters ended Aleksandar Vu?i?’s 14-year hold on power on October 25. The Student List, a movement born of the protests after the Novi Sad station canopy collapsed in November 2024, won nearly 53% of the vote and a parliamentary majority on the highest turnout in three decades. Vu?i? conceded within 90 minutes. The students campaigned against his corruption and kept his foreign policy: no recognition of Kosovo, no sanctions on Russia. The new government’s most urgent decisions run through Moscow. Serbia’s only refinery belongs to NIS, a Gazprom-controlled company operating on a U.S. sanctions waiver that expires on October 30. Hungary’s MOL was due to buy out the Russian stake, but the talks have reportedly collapsed because Gazprom will not sell. Serbia’s discounted Russian gas contract expires on December 31. Vu?i?’s party holds the acting presidency until a December vote and has promised to act as a check on a government that has yet to name a prime minister. Youth-led protests are spreading across Europe. In Albania, a week of clashes with police has left the Supreme Court damaged by fire and 167 people under arrest. In Italy, the government deployed 500 soldiers to Milan ahead of marches by the new October 17 Movement. In France, school protests merged with opposition to a €54 billion austerity budget and brought 550,000 people onto the streets. In April, Hungarian voters removed Viktor Orbán, Vu?i?’s closest ally inside the EU.
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority has given conditional approval to import up to 1.3 GW of Vietnamese offshore wind power through Malaysia, starting in 2035. PetroVietnam Technical Services and a Sembcorp unit are developing the project with MY Energy, the consortium of Tenaga Nasional and Petronas, and Malaysia will take a share of the power as it passes through. Gas generates about 95% of Singapore’s electricity, and half of that gas arrives as LNG. Qatar supplied 48% of the island’s LNG last year, until its cargoes stopped in April. Singapore has replacement cargoes from the U.S., Australia and Africa lined up only through the end of 2026, and households renewing electricity contracts are already paying 5% to 10% more. The Vietnam link counts toward Singapore’s target of about 6 GW of low-carbon power imports by 2035, alongside conditional approvals for projects in Australia, Indonesia, Cambodia and Malaysia. All of them still need further regulatory approval, and until the first cables arrive, Singapore’s power prices will follow LNG supply.
Borr Drilling’s Prospector 5 jack-up sank off Gabon on Saturday night before it drilled a single well. One worker is dead, and four are missing, and the hit to BW Energy is a stalled drilling campaign, not lost oil. The rig suffered a punch-through, meaning a leg broke through the seabed while it was being jacked up. The rig lost stability and went down at about 9:40 p.m. local time on the Dussafu Marin licence near the MaBoMo production facility, with 115 people aboard. An Indian worker has been found dead. Three Gabonese workers and one other expatriate are still missing. Gabon’s government has not confirmed the death and still lists five people as missing. BW Energy holds 73.5% of the licence and Panoro Energy holds 17.5%. The rig was under contract for BW’s next drilling campaign there. MaBoMo output was already shut in for the drilling preparations. BW reports no damage to the facility and no spill. Gabon’s oil ministry has set up a crisis unit, sent the navy to reinforce the search and ordered a technical investigation. The investigation will decide how long Dussafu waits for a replacement rig and what Borr’s fleet faces from insurers.
Equinor has more than doubled its estimate for Afrodite, a gas and condensate discovery it made in the Norwegian North Sea in 2008 and never developed. Recoverable volumes now stand at 77 to 180 million boe. The field lies near Kvitebjørn and about 15 kilometers from Gullfaks, within reach of existing infrastructure.
EQT is buying Range Resources in an all-stock deal that values the combined company at more than $50 billion, including debt. Range shareholders get 0.987 EQT shares for each share, a 20.6% premium. The merged company will produce more than 9 Bcfe/d from nearly 3 million acres in Appalachia, with 30 years of drilling inventory and 3,700 miles of its own pipeline. EQT puts its free cash flow breakeven below $2 per MMBtu and expects $325 million in annual savings within two years. The deal gives EQT more low-cost gas to sell into record U.S. LNG exports and the gas-fired power plants being built for data centers. It is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027.
Ovintiv is buying Logan Energy for about $890 million in cash, including debt, to add oil drilling locations in the Montney. Logan produces about 20,000 boe/d, mostly gas, and brings 420 net oil locations and 266,000 net acres, taking Ovintiv’s core Montney position to about 720,000. Ovintiv expects the deal to lift 2027 cash flow per share by 5% and will keep net debt below $4 billion. The purchase extends a shift to Canada that began in 2024, when Ovintiv sold its Utah assets and bought Paramount’s Montney acreage. The deal is expected to close early in the first quarter of 2027.
Galp’s talks to merge its refining, chemicals and fuel retail businesses with Moeve, the former Cepsa owned by Mubadala and Carlyle, have collapsed. The deal would have combined Galp’s Sines refinery with Moeve’s Huelva and Algeciras plants into a 700,000 b/d platform with about 3,500 service stations. Neither company gave a public reason. The two sides reportedly could not agree on what the refineries are worth after the Iran war sent margins soaring. Galp’s refining margin hit a record $33.8 a barrel in the third quarter, up from $9.5 a year earlier, and its adjusted net profit rose 68% on the day the talks ended. Galp will now focus on Brazilian oil and renewables, and Moeve on its low-carbon businesses.
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