⏱ 10 min read [ INTERMEDIATE ]
Every market — stocks, real estate, crypto — moves in cycles. Understanding where you are in a cycle is one of the most valuable skills an investor can have.
Markets do not move in straight lines. They move in repeating patterns driven by human psychology: greed and fear, optimism and panic.
The cruel irony of markets is that most people feel the most confident to buy near the top — after prices have already risen dramatically — and the most fearful near the bottom, which is exactly when the best opportunities exist.
| ‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.’ — Warren Buffett. This applies perfectly to crypto. |
Crypto markets follow a roughly 4-year cycle that aligns closely with Bitcoin’s halving schedule. Historically: the year before a halving tends to see recovery, the year of and after the halving tends to see significant bull runs, followed by a bear market correction.
Knowing the cycle does not mean you can time the market perfectly — nobody can. But it helps you avoid the most common mistake: buying with maximum excitement at market peaks. Dollar-cost averaging (investing a fixed amount regularly regardless of price) is the most reliable strategy for most people.
| Key takeaway: Markets cycle through accumulation, growth, distribution, and decline. Crypto follows roughly 4-year cycles tied to Bitcoin’s halving. Buy gradually, not impulsively. |
